Whilst the underlying feeling of a slow in the UK property market will occur towards the new year, indications are actually pointing to several months following to receive many transactions being carried out at a hectic pace from those wanting to buy property in Stockport.
The Fuel for the Flames
Statistics have forecast a four per cent average house price growth in 2021 nationwide after a 6.6 per cent higher at the end of 2020.
No doubt the current stamp duty holiday has fueled the current trend in growth, but it’s also worth noting that buyer demand was stationed at a very high level prior to the announcement in the summer. Sales are currently resilient at 53% higher than the figures from this point in 2019, even in the face of dwindling potential completion by March 31st.
Whilst a continuing transaction trend is a positive outlook heading into Spring, a lull is likely looming in the second quarter without a stamp duty extension.
This does not mean that a large portion of buyers will view its removal as a make or break scenario but it could lead to a reduction in offers in an effort to compensate for the higher tax, or sellers preparing to help mitigate financial losses of the buyers. Those first-time buyers are set to remain largely exempt and no worse off.
With 130,000 sales agreed over the last month it is reported that the market is no less than 44 per cent up from 2019.
Back in November it was reported that 650,000 sales agreed were currently in the pipeline which was driving for completion by the stamp duty holiday deadline of March 31st in order to qualify.
As we are now a month later in December and inching ever so close to that looming deadline, that figure still stands at 650,000. This is down to 130,000 additional sales have joined the process replacing the 130,000 completions and fall throughs that have been undertaken over the duration of the last month.
With the stamp duty holiday coming to an end, the anticipation of a slower second quarter accompanies it. The solace is that cheap mortgage rates provide scope for modest price growth without the loss of the tax saving.